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Philip Tetlock

Professor of Business and
Political Science of Political Science

Academic History:

Lorraine Tyson Mitchell Chair II in Leadership and Communication
Professor of Leadership
Chair, Haas Organizational Behavior and Industrial Relations Group
Acting Associate Dean for Academic Affairs, Haas School
1-510-642-2571
Email: click on the envelope icon below for full email address
Academic Status: On duty
Office Hours: Wednesday 1:30-3:30 pm
Personal Homepage:
Academic Group Homepage: http://groups.haas.berkeley.edu/obir/
Curriculum Vitae (in PDF format, Acrobat Reader required)

Education

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1979 Ph.D. (Psychology),Yale University
1976 M.A. (Psychology), University of British Columbia
1975 B.A. (Honors), University Of British Columbia

Positions Held

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At Haas since 2001

2003 - Appointed Lorraine Tyson Mitchell Chair II in Leadership and Communication
2001 - Professor of Organizational Behavior, Haas School of Business, University of California Berkeley
1996 - 2001 The Harold E. Burtt Professor of Psychology & Political Science, The Ohio State University
1987 - 1996 Professor of Psychology
1988 - 1995 Director, Institute of Personality and Social Research, University of California, Berkeley
1980 - 1995 Research Psychologist, Survey Research Center, University of California, Berkeley
1993 - 1994 Fellow, Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences, Stanford
1984 - 1987 Associate Professor, Department of Psychology, University of California, Berkeley
1979 - 1984 Assistant Professor, Department Of Psychology, University Of California, Berkeley

External Service and Assignments

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• Editorial Boards in last 10 years: Annual Review of Psychology, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Political Psychology, and the National Research Council's quality-control editor for its committee on interactive conflict resolution workshops.
• National Committee Service in the last 10 years: National Research Council committee on international conflict; Social Science Research Council committee on international security
• Miscellaneous Consulting Activities: Development of Group Dynamics Q-Sort (and other Remote Assessment Techniques) for the U.S. Government's Office of Leadership Analysis; Critical Analysis of Political Forecasting and Risk Assessment Techniques for U.S. Government Intelligence Agencies; Advisory Panel to HumRRO on Incorporating Bayesian Belief Updating Techniques (NETTICA) into Leadership Assessments.

Current Research and Interests

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• Learning from experience: How do experts think about possible pasts (historical counterfactuals) and probable futures (conditional forecasts)? And how do experts respond to confirmation/disconfirmation of expectations?
• Designing accountability systems: How do people cope with various types of accountability pressures and demands in their social world? When does accountability promote mindless conformity? Defensive bolstering of prior positions? Thoughtful self-critical analysis? …
• De-biasing judgment and choice. How can organization structure incentives and accountability procedures to check common cognitive biases such as belief perseverance and over-confidence? What adverse side effects can such de-biasing efforts have on quality of decision-making?

Selected Papers and Publications

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• “Expert Political Judgment: How Good is it? How Can we Know?” (2005), Princeton University Press
• “Unmaking the West: Counterfactuals, Contingency, and Causality” (R.N. Lebow and G. Parker, Eds)
• Tetlock, P.E. (2002). Social-functionalist metaphors for judgment and choice: The intuitive politician, theologian, and prosecutor. Psychological Review.
• Tetlock, P.E. & Lebow, R.N. (2001). Poking counterfactual holes in covering laws: Cognitive styles and historical reasoning. American Political Science Review.
• Tetlock, P.E. (2001). Cognitive biases in path-dependent systems: Theory driven reasoning about plausible pasts and probable futures in world politics. In T. Gilovich, D. W. Griffin, & D. Kahneman. (Eds.). Inferences, heuristics and biases: New directions in judgment under uncertainty. New York: Cambridge University Press.
• Tetlock, P.E. (2000). Cognitive biases and organizational correctives: Do both disease and cure depend on the ideological beholder? Administrative Science Quarterly, 45, 293-326.
• Tetlock, P.E., Kristel, O., Elson, B., Green, M., and Lerner, J (2000). The psychology of the unthinkable: Taboo trade-offs, forbidden base rates, and heretical counterfactuals. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 78, 853-870.

Teaching

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• Fall 2001 N/A
• Spring 2002 OBIR colloquium

Honors and Awards

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• National Academy of Sciences Award for Behavioral Research Relevant to the Prevention of Nuclear War, 1999
• Nevitt Sanford Award for Distinguished Professional Contributions to Political Psychology, International Society of Political Psychology, 1997.
• Woodrow Wilson Book Award, American Political Science Association (co-recipient with P. Sniderman & R. Brody, for Reasoning and Choice: Explorations in Political Psychology),1992.
• Vice President, International Society of Political Psychology, 1991-1993
• American Association for the Advancement of Science Prize for Behavioral Science Research, 1988.
• MacArthur Fellow, 1987.
• Fellow of Division 8 of the American Psychological Association, 1987.
• Erik H. Erikson Award of the International Society of Political Psychology, 1987.
• Selected, Fellow at the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences, 1987.
• Distinguished Scientific Award for Early Career Contribution to Social Psychology, American Psychological Association, 1986.
• Governor-General's Gold Medal, Award for Undergraduate Academic Excellence, 1975.